Monday, 23 March 2015

Obama writes to Nigerians over elections

Obama writes Nigerians over elections, urges peace

President Barack Obama
President Barack Obama

As preparations intensify for general elections in Nigeria, starting Saturday, the United States President, Barack Obama, on Monday sent a special message to Nigerians, urging a credible and peaceful polls.
In the message sent directly to Nigerians, President Obama reminded the people about their struggle for the country’s independence from colonialism, the struggle against military dictatorship and the need to turn the country’s diversity into a source of strength.
“I call on all Nigerians to peacefully express your views and to reject the voices of those who call for violence,” Mr. Obama said.
“And when elections are free and fair, it is the responsibility of all citizens to help keep the peace, no matter who wins,” he added.
Read full text of Mr. Obama’s Message to the Nigerian People below:
“Hello.  Today, I want to speak directly to you—the people of Nigeria.
Nigeria is a great nation and you can be proud of the progress you’ve made.  Together, you won your independence, emerged from military rule, and strengthened democratic institutions.  You’ve strived to overcome division and to turn Nigeria’s diversity into a source of strength.  You’ve worked hard to improve the lives of your families and to build the largest economy in Africa.
Now you have a historic opportunity to help write the next chapter of Nigeria’s progress—by voting in the upcoming elections.  For elections to be credible, they must be free, fair and peaceful.  All Nigerians must be able to cast their votes without intimidation or fear.
So I call on all leaders and candidates to make it clear to their supporters that violence has no place in democratic elections—and that they will not incite, support or engage in any kind of violence—before, during, or after the votes are counted.  I call on all Nigerians to peacefully express your views and to reject the voices of those who call for violence.  And when elections are free and fair, it is the responsibility of all citizens to help keep the peace, no matter who wins.
Successful elections and democratic progress will help Nigeria meet the urgent challenges you face today.  Boko Haram—a brutal terrorist group that kills innocent men, women and children—must be stopped.  Hundreds of kidnapped children deserve to be returned to their families.  Nigerians who have been forced to flee deserve to return to their homes.  Boko Haram wants to destroy Nigeria and all that you have worked to build.  By casting your ballot, you can help secure your nation’s progress.
I’m told that there is a saying in your country: “to keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done”. Today, I urge all Nigerians—from all religions, all ethnic groups, and all regions—to come together and keep Nigeria one.  And in this task of advancing the security, prosperity, and human rights of all Nigerians, you will continue to have a friend and partner in the United States of America.

Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election

Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election

Contingency Planning Memorandum Update

Author: , Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies
Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election - john-campbell-cpm-update-nigerias-2015-presidential-election
PublisherCouncil on Foreign Relations Press
Release DateFebruary 2015

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The success or failure of democracy, rule of law, and ethnic and religious reconciliation in Nigeria is a bellwether for the entire continent. With a population of more than 177 million evenly divided between Muslims and Christians, Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and most populous country. A 2010 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum, "Electoral Violence in Nigeria," considered the potential for widespread violence associated with Nigeria's 2011 elections and the limited policy options available to the United States to forestall it. This assessment remains relevant today.
The 2015 elections again may precipitate violence that could destabilize Nigeria, and Washington has even less leverage in Abuja than it did in 2011. The upcoming elections are a rematch of the 2011 elections between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (a southern Christian) and Muhammadu Buhari (a northern Muslim and a former military chief). Tension between Washington and Abuja is higher than in 2011, largely over how to respond to the radical Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram, which is steadily gaining strength in northeast Nigeria. According to CFR's Nigeria Security Tracker, Boko Haram has been responsible for nearly eleven thousand deaths since May 2011. Nigerian domestic instability has also increased as a result of the recent global collapse of oil prices, which are hitting the government and political classes hard. Oil constitutes more than 70 percent of Nigeria's revenue and provides more than 90 percent of its foreign exchange. Since October 2014, the national currency, the naira, has depreciated from 155 to the U.S. dollar to 191.

New Concerns

Since Nigeria's independence in 1960, political power has alternated between the predominantly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south, an informal strategy to forestall the country's polarization. Jonathan assumed the presidency when President Umaru Yar'Adua, a northern Muslim, died in 2010. Jonathan gave private assurances that he would finish Yar'Adua's term and wait until 2015 to run for president because it was still "the north's turn." But Jonathan ran for reelection in 2011, thereby violating the system of power alternation. Following the announcement of Jonathan's victory, the north made accusations of election rigging. Rioting broke out across the north, resulting in the greatest bloodshed since the 1967–70 civil war.

Geographic Distribution of Votes in 2011 Presidential Election

Geographic Distribution of Votes in 2011 Presidential ElectionThe 2015 elections are likely to be more violent. A new opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), has nominated Buhari as its presidential candidate. The APC is stronger than its predecessors and reflects a splintering of the political classes. The government's inability to defeat Boko Haram, the economic hardships brought on by falling oil prices, and a growing public perception that the Jonathan administration is weak have fueled support for the APC. Though the APC's voter base is in the north, it enjoys support all over the country, unlike the opposition in 2011.
However, any incumbent Nigerian president has significant advantages: he is at the center of extensive patronage networks; he has access to the government's oil revenue; and he and his party largely control the election machinery and ballot-counting infrastructure. It is uncertain whether any provisions will be made for voters in the three northern states placed under a state of emergency because of Boko Haram, as well as the estimated one million people displaced by the insurgency. These displaced voters would likely support Buhari and the APC; their exclusion would benefit Jonathan and the People's Democratic Party (PDP). Thus despite the strength of the opposition, Jonathan remains the likely—but not certain—winner.

Policy Implications

An unstable Nigeria with internally displaced and refugee populations and a government unable to quell Boko Haram could potentially destabilize neighboring states and compromise U.S. interests in Africa. Yet, the United States has little leverage over Nigerian politics, which is driven by domestic factors, and even less leverage over the Nigerian security services. Nigeria will be disappointed that the United States has not offered greater assistance to counter Boko Haram, and Washington will be frustrated by Abuja's failure to address human rights abuses by the security service.

Recommendations

A November 2014 Council Special Report "U.S. Policy to Counter Nigeria's Boko Haram" recommends long-term steps the United States should take to encourage a Nigerian response to terrorism that advances democracy, rule of law, and respect for human rights. In the short term, vocal U.S. support for democracy and human rights both during and after the elections could help discourage violence at the polls and after the results are announced. Secretary of State John Kerry, in a preelection visit to Nigeria, has already underscored the importance of free, fair, and credible elections to the bilateral relationship.
  • In the aftermath, Washington should avoid commenting prematurely on the quality of the elections. Observers from the National Democratic Institute and the International Republic Institute are likely to issue preliminary assessments immediately after the polls close. So, too, will observers from the European Union, the Commonwealth, and the African Union. There will be media pressure for early, official comment. But, following a close election and the violence likely to follow, the timing and content of official U.S. statements should take into account the views of the vibrant Nigerian human rights community, which will likely be the most accurate.
  • Washington should forcefully and immediately denounce episodes of violence, including those committed by the security services. But official statements should avoid assessing blame without evidence, and they should take into account the weak ability of party leaders to control crowd behavior.
  • Washington should facilitate and support humanitarian assistance. The north is already in desperate need of humanitarian assistance, with the prospect of famine looming. If the postelection period is violent, there may be need for international humanitarian assistance in many other parts of the country. The Obama administration should plan for a leadership role in coordinating an international humanitarian relief effort, including a close study of lessons learned from the Africa Military Command's successful intervention in Liberia's Ebola crisis.

Friday, 20 March 2015

pvc collection statistics in Nigeria

PDP panics over high PVC collection in APC strongholds

PDP National Chairman, Adamu Mu’azu

There is consternation within the Peoples Democratic Party over the high rate of Permanent Voter Card collection in geopolitical zones considered to be the strongholds of the opposition All Progressives Congress.The Independent National Electoral Commission, in a document released on Thursday, had said 38,774,391 of 54,341,610 PVCs had been collected by their owners while less than 15,567,219 cards were still with INEC.
SUNDAY PUNCH gathered on Friday that the ruling party was uncomfortable with the high number of registered voters in states where the APC presidential candidate, Maj.Gen Muhammadu Buhari, is believed to be very popular.
The North-West, believed to be a stronghold of the APC, is the zone where the highest number of PVCs has been collected as of January 7, 2015. Voters in the zone collected 12,013,961 PVCs (30.98 per cent); followed by the South-West with 6,270,736 (16.17 per cent); the South-South, 5,756,018 (14.85 per cent); the North-Central, 5,520,001 (14.24 per cent); the North-East, 4,886,499 (12.60 per cent); South-East, 4,886,499 (10.10 per cent); and the Federal Capital Territory, 411,935 (1.06 per cent).
Not less than 59.75 per cent of the PVCs have been collected in the North-West, the North-East and the South-West, where the APC is perceived to be strong.
The figures of Borno State were not made available by INEC as PVCs have not been distributed there.
Our correspondents in the states gathered that senior party officials of the PDP were worried that parts of the country were President Goodluck Jonathan is adjudged to be very popular recorded low numbers. Such areas include the South-East and some South-South states.
A member of the PDP National Working Committee, who pleaded anonymity, said, “We have studied the figures and we are concerned about low figures in places we have been banking on for victory.
“Look at the South-East, parts of the South-South and even Lagos, where we have been banking on to get massive votes. Only 53.98 per cent of the PVCs have been collected in Lagos compared with Kano State, 86.63 per cent. We have directed our members to embark on grass roots campaigns on the collection of PVCs.”
Similarly, the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Olisah Metuh, in an interview with SUNDAY PUNCH, admitted that the party was unhappy with the disparity in the distribution of the PVCs.
Metuh said, “Our party members have complained that in their strongholds they have not been able to get the PVCs while some places where we are considered to be a little bit weak achieved almost 90 per cent success rate.
“In line with the President’s avowed commitment to free, fair and credible elections, we urge INEC to avail every (eligible) Nigerian the opportunity to vote in next month’s election.
“We as a party stand by what our President said every eligible Nigerian voter should be given the PVC.”
EKITI
In Ekiti State where the governor is a member of the ruling party, the PDP has directed ward chairmen to mobilise their members to collect their PVCs. Only 65.72 per cent of the PVCs have been collected in the state.
The state Chairman, Mr. Idowu Faleye, who spoke with one of our correspondents on Friday, said party members had also been asked to mobilise their supporters to collect their PVCs.
He said, “We are leaving no stone unturned. We have discussed with our ward chairmen to mobilise people to collect their PVCs before the end of the month.”
DELTA
Also in Delta State, another state ruled by the PDP, the party has given marching orders to its ward and local government officers to ensure that more people collect their permanent voter cards.
The order, our correspondent gathered, was sequel to the low collection of PVCs in the state.
The State Publicity Secretary of PDP, Mr. Deinghan Macaulay, told one of our correspondents that the party leaders at the grass roots had been asked to mobilise people to collect the PVCs.
“We have given instruction to all the party leaders in the wards and local governments to go out and mobilise the people to collect their PVCs.
“We are taking this as a priority. The party leaders have been given marching orders to move to their wards and get the people to collect their PVCs.
“You know this is a PDP state. The more people that have their PVCs, the more votes the party will get in the elections. Now that INEC has made the cards available, we have to go and collect them,” Macaulay said.
KOGI
Similarly, the Special Adviser to Kogi State Governor, Capt Idris Wada on Communication and Strategy, Mr. Jacob Edi, in a telephone interview with one of our correspondents said the PDP had intensified moves on PVC collection.
Edi said, “Kogi is among the states that have an appreciable number of people that collected their PVCs. Kogi is 100 per cent PDP state. There is no party official that has not collected his or her PVC. The governor has met with every sector on the need for them to collect their PVCs. I can assure you that all government officials and appointees have their PVC.”
ENUGU
In Enugu State, the party’s Publicity Secretary, Dr. Okey Eze, said the PDP had also launched a programme to encourage voters to collect their PVCs.
“We have commenced a sensitisation and awareness programme, especially at the grass roots. We are on air – we are urging our people to collect their voter cards.”
He stated that the “frustrations” experienced by voters during the initial attempt to collect the cards was responsible for the seeming apathy towards the collection of the PVCs in the state.
Eze therefore urged the INEC to provide an “enabling environment” for the collection of the cards.
“It was because of the frustration that they had at the onset that some people have not collected their cards,” he said.
CROSS RIVER
In Cross River State, a total of 1,025,760 PVCs were received from INEC for distribution to registered voters in the state. Out of the figure, only 261,416 PVCs had been collected as at September 2014, representing about 60 per cent.
Efforts to speak with PDP officials in Cross River State proved abortive as the key members had travelled to Enugu for the party’s presidential campaign.
However, the Chief Press Secretary to Governor Liyel Imoke, Mr. Christian Ita, said the PDP was not resting on its oars in mobilising registered voters in the state to collect their PVCs.
He said, “We had constant publicity and jingles on radio and television advising the electorate to collect their PVCs. The party has taken further steps by directing ward caucus leaders in the 18 local government areas to mount pressure on the electorate to ensure that they get their PVCs. This is addition to those who are PDP members.”
ONDO
Meanwhile, the internal wrangling within the PDP in Ondo State may have negative effects on its ability to shore up the number of Permanent Voter Cards collected by its members in the state.
Although the Governor Olusegun Mimiko-led faction claims that all is well with the party, having got its candidates recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Dr. Olu Ogunye-led faction has distanced itself from any agreement reached by some leaders of the party.
Ogunye, who came on board after Ebenezer Alabi resigned in the heat of the crisis, said PVC collection remained secondary as long as there was internal crisis within the party.
“We have to deal with the problems within the party. It is a crisis. After that, we can begin to talk about other matters,” he said.
Ogunye said the trouble with the party was Mimiko’s alleged refusal to “be a good party man”, vowing that his group was not prepared to campaign for the governor’s presidential candidate.
But the Commissioner for Information, Kayode Akinmade, speaking for the other faction of the party, said the party was on top of the situation.
We are not impressed yet — APC
But the APC said it was unimpressed despite the high figures recorded in areas where it is believed to be strong, particularly the North-West.
The National publicity secretary of the party, Mr. Lai Mohammed, said this in response to inquiries by SUNDAY PUNCH.
He explained that in spite of the figures the electoral body churned out, many eligible Nigerians had not collected their PVCs.
Mohammed said, “People have been unable to collect their PVCs. That is the problem we are having. We are not interested in the figures they are churning out.
“I am not impressed one bit about the figures they are publishing. (Many) Nigerians have yet to receive their PVCs. INEC should go back and ensure that every registered voter receives his/her PVC that is what is of paramount importance to us right now.”

All from  PUNCHNG.COM